Research Spotlight: No tipping point for Arctic Ocean ice
Identifieur interne : 000053 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000052; suivant : 000054Research Spotlight: No tipping point for Arctic Ocean ice
Auteurs : Colin Schultz [États-Unis]Source :
- Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union [ 0096-3941 ] ; 2011-03-08.
Descripteurs français
- Wicri :
- topic : Arctique, Changement climatique.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Arctic, Arctic ocean, Arctic summer, Carbon cycle, Climate change, Climate models, Cultural legitimacy, Exergy, Geophysical, Geophysical research letters, Global carbon cycle, Goce, Gravity field, Greenhouse gases, Life cycle assessment, Lower atmosphere, Nitric, Nitric oxide, Nitric oxide emissions, Ocean currents.
- Teeft :
- Arctic, Arctic ocean, Arctic summer, Carbon cycle, Climate change, Climate models, Cultural legitimacy, Exergy, Geophysical, Geophysical research letters, Global carbon cycle, Goce, Gravity field, Greenhouse gases, Life cycle assessment, Lower atmosphere, Nitric, Nitric oxide, Nitric oxide emissions, Ocean currents.
Abstract
Declines in the summer sea ice extent have led to concerns within the scientific community that the Arctic Ocean may be nearing a tipping point, beyond which the sea ice cap could not recover. In such a scenario, greenhouse gases in the atmosphere trap outgoing radiation, and as the Sun beats down 24 hours a day during the Arctic summer, temperatures rise and melt what remains of the polar sea ice cap. The Arctic Ocean, now less reflective, would absorb more of the Sun's warmth, a feedback loop that would keep the ocean ice free. However, new research by Tietsche et al. suggests that even if the Arctic Ocean sees an ice‐free summer, it would not lead to catastrophic runaway ice melt. The researchers, using a general circulation model of the global ocean and the atmosphere, found that Arctic sea ice recovers within 2 years of an imposed ice‐free summer to the conditions dictated by general climate conditions during that time. Furthermore, they found that this quick recovery occurs whether the ice‐free summer is triggered in 2000 or in 2060, when global temperatures are predicted to be 2°C warmer. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2010GL045698, 2011)
Url:
DOI: 10.1029/2011EO100014
Affiliations:
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<front><div type="abstract">Declines in the summer sea ice extent have led to concerns within the scientific community that the Arctic Ocean may be nearing a tipping point, beyond which the sea ice cap could not recover. In such a scenario, greenhouse gases in the atmosphere trap outgoing radiation, and as the Sun beats down 24 hours a day during the Arctic summer, temperatures rise and melt what remains of the polar sea ice cap. The Arctic Ocean, now less reflective, would absorb more of the Sun's warmth, a feedback loop that would keep the ocean ice free. However, new research by Tietsche et al. suggests that even if the Arctic Ocean sees an ice‐free summer, it would not lead to catastrophic runaway ice melt. The researchers, using a general circulation model of the global ocean and the atmosphere, found that Arctic sea ice recovers within 2 years of an imposed ice‐free summer to the conditions dictated by general climate conditions during that time. Furthermore, they found that this quick recovery occurs whether the ice‐free summer is triggered in 2000 or in 2060, when global temperatures are predicted to be 2°C warmer. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2010GL045698, 2011)</div>
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